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Kash Patel out by May 31? | No | 2026-05-31
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echo -n "Kash Patel out by May 31? | No | 2026-05-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Low-friction market (any announcement or credible report of resignation/removal flips to Yes instantly); No at 97%+ is consensus but the required actors (Trump, White House) retain full capability for a single-statement reversal in the final 4 days with no procedural barriers. Recent behavior (Patel testifying May 12, public denials, White House support) shows no momentum toward exit, yet base rate of sudden high-profile firings under Trump allows one catalyst at any moment—exactly the scenario triggering default reject for low-friction consensus No trades.
Rules require Patel to cease being FBI Director (or an official announcement of resignation/removal) by 11:59 PM ET on May 31; resolution sources are limited to Trump administration statements or consensus credible reporting. No such event or announcement has occurred as of May 27, with all enrichment reports confirming Patel remains in office and actively appearing publicly. With only four days left and no plausible qualifying event possible under the literal criteria, the market resolves No.
Smart money leans NO at 0.80 confidence ($7k stake vs $652 on Yes); 97% No price stable on $183k volume with recent May 12 testimony and no 24-72h news of imminent exit; tight consensus hold with healthy microstructure, no whale opposition or thin-book signals.
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