Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Recent web searches confirm US airstrikes on military targets at Kharg Island on April 7, 2026, but explicitly no strikes on oil facilities and no reports of ground invasion, occupation, or loss of Iranian control. The market's strict resolution rules require another entity to establish primary control with official statements and consensus reporting, which has not happened and is extremely unlikely in the remaining 7 days absent full-scale invasion not indicated in current news. Buying No at 96% offers a solid 4% edge on a near-certain outcome, aligning with high-confidence criteria.

Web searches confirm no reports of Kharg Island being seized, occupied, or no longer under Iranian control since market opened on March 30, 2026; recent news mentions only threats, considerations of seizure, and airstrikes, which are explicitly excluded by the strict resolution rules requiring another entity to establish primary control with official statements and consensus reporting. With 7 days left until April 15 deadline, the probability of Yes remains near zero, validating the AI's assessment of No at 96¢ as a mispricing with ~4% edge and low risk. The high volume and crowd pricing align, but the tail risk is overstated given zero developments.

As of April 8, 2026, there is no evidence of a ground invasion or established foreign control on Kharg Island. While U.S. strikes on March 13 targeted military infrastructure, the formal rules require 'primary governmental or military control' by another state, which cannot realistically be achieved and stabilized within the remaining 7 days given the current lack of active amphibious operations.