Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei, as the newly installed Supreme Leader, has every incentive to remain inside Iran to consolidate power amid protests and regional threats; his recent behavior (statements issued from Tehran as of May 1 and May 20, ongoing oversight of state affairs, no reported travel) shows zero movement toward departure. No plausible chain of events allows a confirmed exit to another country plus credible reporting in the remaining 9 days. Base rate for a sitting Iranian Supreme Leader abruptly leaving under these conditions is effectively zero.

The formal rules require confirmed exit from Iran (plane must land outside Iran; boat to international waters allowed) with resolution via consensus of credible reporting, and explicitly default to No if unconfirmed by 11:59 PM ET on May 31. As of May 20 he remains in Tehran making public statements and meetings, leaving only 9 days with zero reported catalysts or credible exit signals. No plausible rule-based path exists for Yes resolution before the deadline, satisfying the consensus-side certainty bar with no flip risk.

Market at 98.8% No with $194k volume and tight 1.3¢/98.8¢ pricing shows real consensus; smart-money whales (7 profitable, $52k+ stake, top wallet $29k) are heavily aligned on No at 1.00 confidence with no opposing flow. Recent price action (+0.6pp 1w, stable 1d) and absence of any whale-driven drift or thin-book signals confirm the microstructure supports riding the consensus hold through the final 9 days.