Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?

Web searches confirm no reports or evidence of Israeli military ground forces operating within Iranian territory since February 28, 2026; all mentions are of air strikes (e.g., Operation Epic Fury), missile attacks, or Israeli operations in Lebanon, none qualifying under the strict rules. With the confirmation deadline at 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026 (two days away) and no official IDF statement or consensus reporting, resolution to 'No' is virtually certain. Market prices No at 98% (consensus >80%), smart money leans No (0.89), supporting a safe 2% edge on buying No.

Web searches confirm no evidence of Israeli military ground forces conducting operations in Iran since February 28, 2026; only aerial strikes like Operation Epic Fury and US-Israel air operations on nuclear sites are reported, with explicit exclusions for intelligence/Mossad actions matching unconfirmed early reports. No official IDF statements or consensus exist, and with the April 30 deadline two days away, resolution to 'No' is virtually guaranteed, supporting the 2% edge on No at 98% pricing. Smart money leans No, aligning with consensus >80% for safe ride to resolution.

Web searches reveal no official IDF confirmation of Israeli ground forces operating in Iran since February 28, 2026; only aerial strikes (e.g., Operation Epic Fury) and unconfirmed rumors from single sources like Al Arabiya about special forces, which do not meet the 'overwhelming consensus of credible reporting' threshold. IDF website details air operations but no ground incursions in Iran. At 98% No with high volume and smart money alignment, consensus is safely rideable to No resolution by April 30.