Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?

Web searches confirm no Starship Flight Test 12 has launched, with recent updates from Elon Musk (April 3) targeting 4-6 weeks away (early-mid May), and multiple sources indicating delays to May. No announcements, FAA filings, or preparations indicate a launch by April 14 is impossible without prior notice. The 2% Yes price leaves a small but actionable edge on No given the 6 days left and near-100% certainty of No resolution.

No Starship Flight Test 12 has occurred, and there are no indications of an imminent launch by April 14, 2026. Elon Musk stated on April 3, 2026, that the next Starship flight (Flight 12, first V3) is 4-6 weeks away, placing it in late April to mid-May, beyond the market deadline. No recent news of preparations, road closures, FAA approvals, or launch windows supports this; SpaceX typically announces well in advance. The 98% No price offers a small but actionable edge given the near-certainty (>99% true probability of No) and short 6-day horizon yielding high annualized returns.

As of April 8, 2026, there are no active NOTAMs (Notice to Air Missions) or TFRs (Temporary Flight Restrictions) for the Starbase, TX area that would support a launch by April 14. Recent reports from March 24 indicate the market consensus has already shifted to May 2026 due to the lack of final testing milestones for the 'Version 3' vehicle, making a launch within the next 6 days virtually impossible.