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Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 2026-03-31
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echo -n "Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 2026-03-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Web searches confirm Masoud Pezeshkian is actively serving as Iran's President in late March 2026, with recent statements on international issues and no credible reports of resignation, removal, detention, or incapacitation since the market opened on January 8, 2026. The Polymarket page shows the market remains active with Yes at ~5%, and notes no impeachment or removal events. With 5 days left, the probability of 'No' resolution is near-certain (>99%), validating the Buy No recommendation as the market slightly overprices the tail risk of 'Yes'.
Web searches confirm Masoud Pezeshkian is actively serving as Iran's President in late March 2026, with recent statements and activities reported up to March 21, and no credible reports of resignation, removal, detention, or incapacitation since the market opened on January 8. With only 5 days until the March 31 deadline, the probability of 'No' resolution is near-certain (>99%) under the market's literal rules, validating the buy No recommendation as low-risk with the 5% edge offering high annualized return over the short timeframe.
The AI analysis claims a 90% edge for 'No' (priced at 95%), which is mathematically impossible as the maximum possible edge for a 95% price is 5%. Furthermore, recent credible reports from March 17-19, 2026, indicate that Pezeshkian is actively weighing resignation due to being sidelined by the IRGC and the death of Ali Larijani, making a 'Yes' resolution a non-negligible risk before the March 31 deadline.
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