Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31?

Extensive web searches and official Ukrainian government site checks confirm no peace referendum has been officially scheduled or announced by any relevant authority as of March 25, 2026, with no recent credible reports indicating imminent action before the March 31 deadline. The Polymarket page verifies the market is still open and trading, with No shares at ~98¢, aligning with the AI's assessment of mispricing and a small edge on No given the near-certainty (>99% true probability) and short time to resolution. The trade meets all criteria: high true probability (>80%), positive time-adjusted return, and no resolution ambiguities or red flags.

No evidence from web searches, official Ukrainian government sites, or recent news indicates any peace referendum has been officially scheduled by a relevant authority as of March 25, 2026, with only 6 days left until the March 31 deadline. Polymarket page confirms the market is active at Yes 3%, No 97%, aligning with low probability of Yes given absence of announcements and prior February rumors that did not materialize. The 2% edge on No is actionable with near-certain resolution to No under literal rules requiring official scheduling, exceeding thresholds for probability (>99%) and short-term return.