Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Nicki Minaj (Onika Tanya Maraj) is not listed among the 43 certified candidates for the June 2, 2026 California Governor primary election, as per the official California Secretary of State certified list released on March 26, 2026. Without being on the ballot, she cannot receive votes or advance to the general election, ensuring resolution to No based on official results. The 3% Yes price provides a small but virtually risk-free edge on No shares, with adequate annualized return given the short timeline to resolution.

The analyst correctly identifies this as an 'absurd' mispricing. Nicki Minaj is a famous musician with no credible political candidacy for California Governor. The web search results from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com) show her price at 3-5%, which is vastly overpriced for a non-candidate. The market will resolve based on official results from the California Secretary of State, where she will not appear, making 'No' a near-certain outcome with a ~95% edge.