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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? | No | 2026-05-31
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echo -n "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? | No | 2026-05-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Low-friction consensus No trade (98% priced) where Yes resolves on a single Israeli government announcement; rule requires reject when deadline has not passed because one statement can flip it at any moment. No behavioral evidence of imminent announcement incentive or action from Netanyahu/IDF/security cabinet in last 30 days; they continue conditioning withdrawals on Hezbollah progress amid recent position expansions.
Rules require Israeli government announcement (or overwhelming credible consensus) that ground forces have ALREADY withdrawn from Lebanese territory (excluding Shebaa Farms) by 11:59 PM ET May 31; planned/future announcements explicitly excluded. No such announcement exists or is imminent per May 2026 reporting on ongoing talks, 45-day ceasefire extension, Israeli insistence on Hezbollah disarmament first, and continued operations/expansions. With only 6 days left and no evidence meeting the strict announcement criterion, default-No applies and no rule-based flip is plausible.
Yes priced at 2% with $1.3M+ volume and stable 1w/1m price action shows real consensus; no whales on either side and sibling bins (June 9%, July 27%) confirm market expects delay. Order book implied tight given the 2.1/98.3 pricing and no thin-liquidity signals. Microstructure fully consistent with Buy No at 98% certainty.
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