Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

No credible reports or official announcements indicate that Steve Witkoff has had a physical, in-person diplomatic meeting with Iranian representatives since the market opened on April 14, 2026; planned meetings in Pakistan were canceled by President Trump as recently as April 25-28. With the deadline tomorrow (April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET) and no evidence of any qualifying event, the market will resolve No per the rules requiring public acknowledgment or consensus credible media reporting. The 2% edge on No at 98¢ offers a high-certainty, low-risk trade given the burden of proof on Yes and near-expired window.

No credible reports confirm a qualifying in-person diplomatic meeting between Steve Witkoff, acting as a US representative, and Iranian officials since the market opened on April 14, 2026; the planned meeting in Pakistan with Iran's foreign minister was publicly canceled by President Trump around April 25, 2026. With the deadline tomorrow (April 30, 11:59 PM ET) and no indications of any last-minute developments in major outlets, the market will resolve 'No' per the strict rules requiring public acknowledgment or consensus reporting, yielding a near-100% probability for No versus its 98¢ pricing.

No credible reports or official statements indicate any in-person diplomatic meeting between Steve Witkoff, acting as a US representative, and Iranian representatives since the market opened on April 14, 2026. The only planned meeting in Pakistan around April 25 was publicly canceled by President Trump, and subsequent news confirms no such event occurred, with Iran's FM traveling elsewhere. With the deadline tomorrow (April 30, 11:59 PM ET) and no signs of last-minute talks, the market will resolve No with near-certainty, providing a small but actionable edge on No at 98¢ given the 2% mispricing.