Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?

Web searches, including recent news up to April 15-16 and Wikipedia as of April 17, 2026, confirm the DHS shutdown remains ongoing with no deal, blocked proposals, or votes scheduled that could lead to signing by April 20. The formal resolution requires presidential signature on a funding bill, unlikely in 4 days amid deadlock over immigration reforms. Thus, true Yes probability is near 0% (<1%) vs. 3% price, making buy No at 97¢ near-certain (>99% prob No) with ~3% edge over 13 days (~84% annualized), exceeding thresholds.

The analyst is correct that the 'Yes' price of 3% is a severe mispricing. The market resolves based on the date a funding bill is enacted. Web search results from [newportri.com](https://www.newportri.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/14/when-will-dhs-shutdown-2026-end-latest-updates-as-house-returns/89603927007/) and [eu.delawareonline.com](https://eu.delawareonline.com/story/news/2026/04/14/dhs-shutdown-updates-government-shutdown-2026-dhs-funding-vote/89603307007/) confirm that as of April 14, the House had not scheduled a vote on the DHS funding bill, and the shutdown was ongoing. With the window being April 17-20 and it now being April 17, there is insufficient time for the House to vote, the Senate to concur, and the President to sign a bill within this 4-day window, making the true probability effectively 0%.