Iran leadership change by May 31?

Key actors (IRGC commanders, Assembly of Experts, clerical establishment) have strong incentives for continuity after the March 9 succession to stabilize governance amid war and unrest; Mojtaba Khamenei remains in position with no removal signals or scheduled Assembly action in the final 11 days. Recent behavior (April-May 2026) shows delegation to generals and public affirmations of his role rather than ouster. Base rate of a second leadership change within 80 days of the first is near zero.

Rules require Mojtaba Khamenei to be removed, detained, or prevented from acting as de facto leader (or official announcement thereof) by May 31 ET; primary source is consensus of credible reporting. No such event has occurred or is credibly signaled in the 11-day window per all reporting through May 8-20 2026, which confirms his ongoing (if low-visibility) role post-March appointment. With No priced at 93% and no rule-based flip possible before deadline, oracle must resolve No.

High weekly volume ($2.2M total, implying strong recent activity) and tight implied spread (Yes at 8¢ vs No at 93¢) show real consensus, not stale thin liquidity. Smart-money whales are heavily concentrated on the NO side ($99K+ stake vs $9.8K on Yes, 0.79 confidence), with no opposing flow or sibling-bin contradictions visible. Price action (1d +1pp, 1m -8pp) is consistent with a stable high-probability NO hold into the May 31 deadline, with no aggressive drift against the recommended side.