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Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 2026-04-15
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echo -n "Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 2026-04-15" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8No credible reports from web searches indicate any country other than Israel or the US conducted a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or embassies by April 15, 2026; all results show Iranian attacks on others or US actions. The market remains open but the confirmation window ends April 18 with no evidence of events, making No resolution virtually certain. Buying No at 97% provides a small but actionable edge given the imminent, low-risk resolution.
The market's deadline of April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has definitively passed as of today, April 17, 2026. The rules state the market resolves to 'No' if no qualifying strike occurs by that deadline. A web search of recent news [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/will-another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by) shows no reports of a qualifying strike by a third country, and the 'No' share is correctly priced at ~97%. Buying 'No' is a near-certain profit as the resolution process concludes.
The analyst fundamentally misunderstands prediction market pricing, claiming a 97% edge when buying 'No' at 97¢ only yields a maximum 3% return. The market is already efficiently priced by the crowd ($932k volume) reflecting the passed April 15 deadline, and the tiny absolute return does not justify the risk of a late confirmation before the April 18 grace period ends.
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