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Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | No | 2026-03-31
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echo -n "Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | No | 2026-03-31" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8The next qualifying video, 'Trapped On An Island Until I Build A Boat', was uploaded on March 21, 2026, after the market's March 16 opening. It has already amassed 58 million views by day 3 (March 24), and given MrBeast's typical viewership patterns, it is virtually certain to surpass 80 million views in the first 7 days, making the 70-80 million range extremely unlikely. Buying No at 95¢ offers a positive edge with near-certain resolution to No soon.
The AI analysis correctly identifies that the probability of the next MrBeast video (already posted on ~March 22, 'Trapped On An Island Until I Build A Boat') achieving exactly 70-80M views in week 1 is very low, given 58M views already after 2 days and typical view velocity suggesting it will exceed 80M. Buying No at 95% offers a positive edge (true prob No ~99%, ~5% ROI short-term), actionable now with resolution imminent. Ladder markets confirm crowd expects ~80-90M, aligning with low prob for 70-80M bracket; claimed 50% edge is overstated but does not invalidate the directional trade.
The AI analysis is fundamentally flawed as it misinterprets the market structure and resolution rules. It claims the market is a '50/50 trap' and will resolve as such, but Polymarket's range markets resolve to a single specific bracket (Yes or No) based on the final view count, not a 50/50 split. Furthermore, the analysis suggests buying 'No' at $0.95 for a '50% edge', which is mathematically nonsensical and provides a poor risk-to-reward ratio for a single-bet outcome that is already priced at 95% probability by the crowd.
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