Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Web searches confirm Trump formally nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair on March 4, 2026, with the nomination received by the Senate (PN855-1) and still pending as of March 28, with no evidence of formal withdrawal; Senate activity like Warren's recent questions shows process ongoing despite delays from Powell probe and blocks. Per rules, formal admin withdrawal required for Yes, unlikely given Trump's backing, and pending/rejection resolves No, making true prob No >98% vs market 97%. Small edge (~3%) over ~1.5 months yields ~23% annualized, meeting threshold for high-confidence single bet.

The market is currently priced at 97% for 'No', which is consistent with the high bar for a formal withdrawal. Search results confirm that President Trump formally submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Senate on March 4, 2026, and despite a procedural blockade by Senator Thom Tillis and a DOJ investigation into Jerome Powell, there is no evidence or political signal that the administration intends to withdraw the nomination. Under the formal rules, even if the nomination is stalled or rejected by the Senate, the market resolves 'No'; only a formal withdrawal by the President or the nominee himself triggers a 'Yes', making the 3% 'Yes' price a clear mispricing of a near-certain 'No' outcome.