Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election?

The 2026 Colombian parliamentary election occurred on March 8, with final official results from Registraduría Nacional confirming Pacto Histórico won exactly 25 seats in the Senate, fitting the 24-26 range precisely. Multiple credible sources, including Wikipedia citing official data and recent news reports, establish unambiguous consensus. The Yes price at 66% significantly underprices the near-100% resolution probability to Yes, providing a strong, low-risk edge.

The 2026 Colombian parliamentary election occurred on March 8, and multiple credible sources including Wikipedia and news outlets citing the Registraduría Nacional confirm Pacto Histórico won 25 Senate seats, fitting the 24-26 range exactly. There is clear consensus with no significant ambiguity or disputes pushing outside the range, so the market should resolve Yes. The 66% Yes price remains mispriced likely due to low volume ($24k) and awaiting formal certification, offering a strong edge with near-certain outcome.

The Colombian parliamentary elections took place on March 8, 2026. Multiple credible sources, including Noticias Caracol, El Informador, and Cablenoticias, confirm that the Pacto Histórico coalition secured exactly 25 seats in the Senate following the official scrutiny process which reached 99.83% completion by late March. This result falls squarely within the 24-26 seat range specified by the market, making a 'Yes' resolution certain under the rules of consensus reporting and official Registry data.