Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?

Election occurred May 26; official early-vote totals (829k) plus Paxton’s reported 880k+ already place total canvass votes inside the 1.2–1.5 M bin per multiple credible sources. No behavioral actors control the certified count; the outcome is a mechanical reporting of ballots already cast. Near-certainty (98.8 ¢ Yes) meets the single-bet bar with no red flags.

Election occurred May 26 2026; multiple independent sources (FairVote, Wikipedia, AP/NBC via Ballotpedia) report exact total canvass votes of 1,387,674 in the Republican Senate runoff (Paxton 885,949 + Cornyn 501,725), which falls squarely inside the 1.2–1.5M bin. Rules accept overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (or Texas SOS data); no attribution, timing, or exclusion issues apply. Neighboring ladder bins trade <1% Yes, confirming no plausible flip risk under the exact-bin requirement.

Price at 98.8% Yes after sharp 1d/1w gains aligns with confirmed ~1.387-1.4M total votes (Paxton 886k + Cornyn 502k across multiple outlets); smart-money whales concentrated on Yes ($2.35k stake, 0.99 confidence) with no opposing flow; weekly volume >$30k and tight consensus on the ladder bin show real participation, not stale thin-book pricing.