Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of March?

The current closing price of OPEN on March 27, 2026, is $4.90, with a daily low of $4.89, well above the $4.00 threshold, and only two trading days remaining (March 30 and 31). Recent historical closes have stayed above $4.33, and given the stock's volatility, the probability of closing below $4.00 is low (estimated <5%), making the true Yes probability around 95-98%, confirming the 16% edge at 82% pricing. The low market volume ($4,975) suggests the price hasn't fully adjusted to the current facts.

Current OPEN stock price is around $4.90-$5.10 as of the latest close on March 25, 2026, with recent lows at 4.89 but all closes since market open (Feb 27) above $4.30, well above the $4 threshold. With only a few trading days left until March 31 and no indications of imminent collapse despite volatility, the true probability of closing above $4 exceeds 90%, making Yes at 82% undervalued with a solid edge in this thin-volume market. Resolution strictly per Yahoo Finance historical close confirms no issues.

As of March 27, 2026, Opendoor (OPEN) is trading significantly above the $4.00 threshold. Search results from Polymarket show that the $1.00, $2.00, and $3.00 markets are already priced at 99-100%, and the $4.00 market is currently priced at 91-95% in various regions, indicating the 82% price mentioned in the analysis is a clear undervaluation with only two trading days remaining in the month. Given the stock's current position and the short time to resolution (March 31), the probability of a drop below $4.00 is extremely low, making 'Yes' a near-certain outcome.