Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?

The narrow window (June 9 3PM ET–June 10 11:59 PM ET) has already closed with no reports of a qualifying Iranian-initiated major airspace closure (prior closures were Feb–Mar 2026 or June 8 western-only actions). Iranian decision-makers (Khamenei/IRGC/Civil Aviation) showed no behavioral shift toward a new broad suspension in the exact interval, consistent with base rates of infrequent, threat-triggered closures rather than routine ones. Analyst's Buy No at 97¢ meets the >90% certainty bar with the event window expired.

The event window (June 9 3PM ET to June 10 11:59 PM ET) has closed with no qualifying major Iranian airspace closure per the explicit criteria (broad suspension affecting commercial flights or at least two listed airports, not weather/foreign warnings). Primary sources (Iranian authorities + credible reporting consensus) show only June 8 western/Tehran-area restrictions that predate the window and do not extend into it; no post-window confirmation or new closure meets the definition. Market is consensus-priced No (>97¢) with no rule-based flip possible post-deadline, satisfying the certainty bar for the recommended side.

Market at 97.4¢ No with $332k volume and tight implied spread; smart money whales ($39k stake, 0.99 confidence) heavily aligned on No side. No evidence of qualifying closure in the narrow June 9-10 window from recent news (events clustered on June 8 with subsequent reopening). Price action and whale flow confirm consensus hold with no opposing flow or staleness issues.