Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?

Deadline of May 31 has passed with zero federal charges or indictments against any listed Trump opponents (investigators/prosecutors of Trump, Dem lawmakers, Biden appointees, or named individuals). DOJ inquiries produced subpoenas/grand juries but yielded no indictments, consistent with the administration's pattern of rhetoric without rapid prosecutorial follow-through on high-profile targets. Base rate of swift federal charges against such figures in a short window is near-zero; no actor had both incentive alignment and procedural capability to deliver an outcome by the cutoff.

The market rules require a qualifying federal charge or indictment by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026, against one of the explicitly listed categories of individuals. The Polymarket page enrichment states verbatim that 'No additional federal charges against Trump political opponents... materialized by the May 31 deadline' and that 'multiple efforts failed to secure indictments... within the resolution window,' with only subpoenas and failed attempts noted. This directly satisfies the evidence standard (official sources or credible consensus) and timing criteria, so the market resolves to No with no plausible rule-based flip.

Market closed May 31 with zero qualifying federal charges per enrichment summary and no contradicting news; price action shows No drifting higher (+20.5pp weekly) on $10.5k volume while smart-money whales (0.67 confidence) are net long No with no >0.7 opposing flow. Microstructure is consistent with the Buy-No thesis and the post-deadline certainty that the event never occurred.