Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Key actors (IRGC, Iranian leadership, US Central Command, major shipping lines) show no aligned incentive or recent behavior toward rapid normalization; traffic remains at single-digit daily transits per IMF Portwatch and Lloyd’s data through mid-May amid ongoing restrictions and risk aversion. Procedurally, restoring a 7-day moving average to 60+ requires sustained commercial resumption that has not occurred in the last 90 days and cannot materialize in the final 10 days given base rates for post-conflict chokepoint recovery. Smart-money consensus on No aligns with this behavioral pattern; no actor has both motive and ability to flip the outcome before deadline.

The formal rules require IMF Portwatch 7-day MA >=60 on any date through May 31 2026 (inclusive of revisions published by the final data cutoff); current enrichment and site data show levels stuck near 5% of baseline with no qualifying surge, and the 10-day window to deadline plus ongoing attribution of disruptions make any qualifying print structurally impossible under the literal criteria. Smart-money consensus on No aligns exactly with the resolution source and timing rules, with no plausible flip-event or evidence gap that would allow Yes. This meets the >=90% certainty bar for the recommended No side with no rule-based path to the opposite outcome.

Massive $17M volume with tight implied liquidity and 94.7¢ No price shows real consensus, not stale. Smart-money whales overwhelmingly aligned on No ($1.48M stake, top holder $358k, 0.91 confidence) with no opposing flow. Recent price action (1w -1.1pp, 1m -58pp on Yes) and May 17 data confirming 7-day avg ~6.3 (far below 60) confirm no aggressive buying pressure against the thesis.