Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?

Verification confirms no US court issued a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, stay, or similar block on the executive order by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; case timelines from Democracy Docket show only filings, oppositions, and post-deadline hearings (e.g., May 11 and June 2), with an early denial of expedited discovery but no operative block. Polymarket page and comments note absence of April court action qualifying for Yes resolution, aligning with No outcome. The single Yes whale (smart money lean 0.70) is incorrect, as deadline passed without event—likely an early bet that failed; low-volume market hasn't resolved yet, creating edge on No.

Web searches confirm multiple lawsuits were filed against the EO in early to late April 2026 (e.g., LULAC case 1:26-cv-01132 filed April 2, state AG suits around April 24), but no court orders, injunctions, TROs, or blocks were issued by April 30, 11:59 PM ET, as required for Yes resolution. No credible reporting or official court documents indicate any qualifying block occurred. The smart money Yes whale (1 trader, 25 shares) likely anticipated a rushed ruling that didn't materialize given filing timelines. Thus, market unambiguously resolves No, validating the Buy No recommendation with near-100% certainty.

The market deadline of April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, has passed without any US court issuing a blocking order (TRO, injunction, stay) on the specified executive order, as confirmed by extensive web searches revealing only lawsuit filings (e.g., by AGs of CA, OR, VT, MI) but no judicial decisions, and the Polymarket page explicitly notes 'No injunction or ruling halted the order by April's end.' This meets the resolution criteria for 'No' per the description, which requires an operative court order, not mere filings or hearings. The single profitable whale on Yes (25 shares) is minor compared to trader consensus at 89.5% No and lack of evidence, making Buy No a high-certainty trade with the edge intact post-deadline.