Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

The formal rules require either a signed written agreement or clear public confirmation from BOTH Israel and Iran that hostilities have permanently ended; the enrichment block and market context confirm no such qualifying event has occurred or is scheduled before the May 31 deadline, with collapsed talks and unresolved nuclear/missile issues explicitly blocking any path to Yes. Primary resolution sources (official statements or credible consensus) remain absent, triggering the default-No outcome under the burden-of-proof standard. This is a consensus-side trade (98¢ No) with no plausible rule-based flip event possible in the remaining 11 days, satisfying all checklist items for approval.

Microstructure fully supports the No side: 98.2¢ price with only 2¢ Yes bid shows tight spread and real consensus, weekly volume of $335k is meaningful, and 1d/1w price action shows Yes drifting lower (-1.1pp / -1.0pp) on that flow. Smart-money whales are heavily concentrated on No ($154k stake vs $3k on Yes) with 0.95 confidence, and no opposing flow or thin-book signals appear. This is a clean consensus hold with no whale or volume red flags.