Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?

Houthis (backed by Iran) control any potential closure but have shown only threats and contained asymmetric attacks since the Oct 2025 ceasefire, with no demonstrated pattern or incentive to achieve effective closure (≤10 arrivals 7-day avg) in the next 15 days amid naval patrols and easy rerouting. Recent July 2026 rhetoric from Tehran and Houthis remains at the level of warnings without operational follow-through, matching the historical base rate of zero full closures. Smart-money whales heavily on No aligns with this behavioral assessment.

The resolution rule requires IMF PortWatch to publish a 7-day moving average of Bab el-Mandeb 'Arrivals of Ships' ≤10 on or before July 31 (market opened July 13). Historical and recent data show averages around 33 (March 2026) with ongoing but suppressed traffic and no reports of a plunge to that threshold; threats exist but no qualifying event or data drop has occurred or is imminent in the 15-day window. Smart-money consensus on No aligns with the strict evidence standard and default-No on ambiguity.

Market at 95.5% No with $56K volume since Jul 13, tight implied spread, and smart-money whales (confidence 0.96) heavily positioned on No side with meaningful stakes. No recent price drift or volume spike against No; 1d move +0.4pp on Yes is negligible. No news flow indicating imminent closure risk before Jul 31, consistent with consensus hold on No.