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× US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? No × Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No +25.8% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Yes × Clavicular charged again by June 30? No +24.2% Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? No +92.3% Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No × Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? No +93.1% Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? No × Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%? Yes +4.0% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? No +3.8% Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? Yes × Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%? No +4.0% Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? No +5.7% Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? No +149.7% Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? Yes × Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? No +38.2% Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? No × Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31? Yes +41.8% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? No +9.9% Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers? Yes +41.8% Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Yes +3.4% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? No +7.0% Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? Yes +5.7% Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31? No +11.1% Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31? No +8.1% Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 4750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026? Yes +2.8% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026? No ✓ Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in March? No ✓ Will Rami leave Babymonster? No +3.5% Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No +5.3% Iran leadership change by March 31? No +2.3% Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? No +4.8% Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? No +11.7% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? No ✓ Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? No +2.7% Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31? No +2.8% Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31? No +13.0% Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? No ✓ Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? No ✓ Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? No ✓ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? No +2.5% Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? No +4.7% Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? No × Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Yes +2.3% Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? No +2.8% Will gas hit (Low) $3.15 by March 31? No +3.6% Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? No +5.8% Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? No +10.5% Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? No ✓ Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? No +2.3% Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? No +6.1% Claude 4.7 released by March 31? No +6.4% Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? No +19.0% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? No ✓ Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? No ✓ NATO Article 5 by March 31? No +2.6% Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? No +7.1% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? No +9.3% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? No +40.6% Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Yes ✓ Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? No +2.2% Will Oro launch a token by March 31, 2026? No +3.1% Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March? No +3.8% Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? No +2.4% Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar Nothing +2.9% Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31? No +3.4% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? No +7.6% Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No +11.7% US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? No +22.0% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? No +6.3% Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? No +6.5% Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026? No +3.6% Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? No +22.4% Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of March? Yes +13.0% Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Yes +2.1% Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of March? No +7.5% Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of March? Yes +17.0% Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? No × Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? No ✓ Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Yes ✓ Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? Yes ✓ Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No +13.0% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? Yes +16.3% Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Yes × Will Trump say "Easter" in March? No +11.6% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? Yes × Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? No ✓ Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? Yes +8.8% Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? No +18.3% Will Trump say "Rigged" or "Stolen" this week? (March 29) Yes × Will "Oil" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) Yes +2.1% Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26? No +58.7% Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%? No +2.2% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026? No +2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? No +3.4% Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 24? No +3.8% Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 23? No +7.5% Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? No × Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m? No ✓ Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 22) No +9.3% Will XRP dip to $1.40 March 16-22? Yes +2.2% Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Yes +3.5% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026? No ✓ Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters? No +2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? No × Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%? No ✓ Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? No +124.7% Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Yes × US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? No × Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No +25.8% Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Yes × Clavicular charged again by June 30? No +24.2% Over $60M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? No +92.3% Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No × Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026? No +93.1% Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? No × Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 65% and 70%? Yes +4.0% Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? No +3.8% Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? Yes × Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%? No +4.0% Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? No +5.7% Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? No +149.7% Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? Yes × Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? No +38.2% Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? No × Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31? Yes +41.8% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? No +9.9% Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers? Yes +41.8% Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Yes +3.4% Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%? No +7.0% Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026? Yes +5.7% Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31? No +11.1% Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31? No +8.1% Will the KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) close above 4750 on the final trading day of Q1 2026? Yes +2.8% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 29, 2026? No ✓ Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in March? No ✓ Will Rami leave Babymonster? No +3.5% Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No +5.3% Iran leadership change by March 31? No +2.3% Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? No +4.8% Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? No +11.7% Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? No ✓ Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? No +2.7% Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31? No +2.8% Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by March 31? No +13.0% Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31? No ✓ Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? No ✓ Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31? No ✓ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? No +2.5% Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? No +4.7% Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? No × Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Yes +2.3% Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? No +2.8% Will gas hit (Low) $3.15 by March 31? No +3.6% Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? No +5.8% Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? No +10.5% Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? No ✓ Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? No +2.3% Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? No +6.1% Claude 4.7 released by March 31? No +6.4% Will Russia capture Bilytske by March 31, 2026? No +19.0% Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? No ✓ Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? No ✓ NATO Article 5 by March 31? No +2.6% Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? No +7.1% Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31? No +9.3% Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? No +40.6% Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Yes ✓ Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? No +2.2% Will Oro launch a token by March 31, 2026? No +3.1% Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March? No +3.8% Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by March 31? No +2.4% Nothing Ever Happens: Ilhan Omar Nothing +2.9% Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by March 31? No +3.4% Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? No +7.6% Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? No +11.7% US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? No +22.0% Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? No +6.3% Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? No +6.5% Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by March 31, 2026? No +3.6% Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? No +22.4% Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of March? Yes +13.0% Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31? Yes +2.1% Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $180 end of March? No +7.5% Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of March? Yes +17.0% Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? No × Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? No ✓ Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? Yes ✓ Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? Yes ✓ Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? No +13.0% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026? Yes +16.3% Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Yes × Will Trump say "Easter" in March? No +11.6% Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 20, 2026? Yes × Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? No ✓ Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? Yes +8.8% Will Heather McPherson win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? No +18.3% Will Trump say "Rigged" or "Stolen" this week? (March 29) Yes × Will "Oil" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) Yes +2.1% Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on March 26? No +58.7% Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%? No +2.2% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 24, 2026? No +2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? No +3.4% Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 24? No +3.8% Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 23? No +7.5% Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? No × Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m? No ✓ Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 22) No +9.3% Will XRP dip to $1.40 March 16-22? Yes +2.2% Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Yes +3.5% Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 19, 2026? No ✓ Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be between 2,200,000 and 2,400,000 voters? No +2.7% Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? No × Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 6.00% and 6.50%? No ✓ Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? No +124.7% Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Yes