Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?

Pelbath received only 10.9% in the June 9 primary and failed to advance to the June 23 runoff (confirmed by Ballotpedia, Wikipedia, and multiple SC news outlets); the Republican nominee will be either Honeycutt or Smith. Primary voters have already eliminated him, so he has zero path to the nomination. No institutional or behavioral mechanism exists for a non-advancing candidate to become nominee post-primary.

Pelbath received 10.9% in the June 9 primary and did not advance to the June 23 runoff (confirmed by Ballotpedia and multiple sources); only Honeycutt and Smith remain eligible for the nomination. The market resolves to the eventual nominee per official Republican sources (RNC consensus), so Pelbath's bin is already No with no plausible reversal under the rules. No at 87.55% meets the consensus threshold and satisfies the >=90% certainty bar for this single-bet ladder outcome.

Pelbath finished 4th (10.9%) on June 9 and is eliminated; runoff is Honeycutt vs Smith on June 23 so true P(Yes) = 0. Microstructure shows extreme illiquidity ($3.7k total vol, implied wide spread) allowing the stale 24.9¢ Yes price to persist, with only $24 in tiny-stake profitable whales on Yes (likely pre-result or noise, not informed flow). Price action and volume confirm no real market consensus challenging the outcome, supporting the No hold despite the contradictory whale signal.