Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Primary election occurred June 2; Bass advanced to runoff (~35%) while Pratt (~29%) did not reach majority or advance, so Pratt cannot win the full election. Voters have already acted; no remaining decision-makers or procedures can alter this outcome before market end. Base rate and recent behavior (primary results) confirm No resolves.

Market rules resolve to the candidate that wins the full election (primary June 2 or runoff Nov 3). Enrichment and page explicitly state Bass advanced from June 2 primary to November runoff with Pratt at ~29% (no majority), so Pratt did not win by market end date of June 2. Default-No applies to any ambiguity post-deadline; no resolver updates override this. Smart money heavily on No with no contradiction to rules-based outcome.

Massive $4.5M volume, Yes price collapsing (1w -17pp) to 3.5¢ with Pratt at ~28-29% in primary results (Bass 35%, advancing to runoff), and 13 profitable whales holding $1.3M on No (0.98 confidence) confirm the microstructure fully supports the Buy No thesis. No thin book, stale price, or opposing whale flow; smart money and tape are aligned on Pratt's elimination from contention.