Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary by less than 5%?

Election occurred June 9 with certified results showing Evette 28.9% to Wilson's 26.2% (margin <3%, well under 5%); no recount or tabulation dispute indicated. Decision-makers (SC Election Commission) have already produced the required outcome via standard post-primary certification process with no incentive or precedent for reversal. Smart-money whales are aligned on Yes; base rate of post-certification margin changes is near-zero.

The election occurred on June 9 (after market open) with Evette at 28.9% and Wilson at 26.2% per the page summary, producing a 2.7-point margin that satisfies the <5% bin exactly. Official SC Election Commission results or overwhelming credible consensus are the binding sources; the enrichment states certified results already confirm the margin with no recount indicated. As the consensus-priced bin (>98¢) with no plausible rule-based flip (no attribution, timing, or recount issues), this meets the >=90% certainty bar for approval.

Post-election results (Evette 28.9% vs Wilson 26.2%) confirm the <5% margin, aligning with the 98.8¢ Yes price and smart-money whales (3 profitable, $222 stake, high lifetime PnL) concentrated on Yes. Low volume ($4k) is expected for a near-resolved consensus market with no opposing flow or sibling-bin contradictions; microstructure shows no red flags and supports riding the hold to resolution.