Прогноз зафиксирован в SHA-256 хэше в момент колла. Любой может проверить, что ставка не изменена задним числом.
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | No | 2026-06-30
ba473234
Проверка…
echo -n "Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | No | 2026-06-30" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8Low-friction market: any single announcement of resignation/removal (or credible report of detention/effective removal) resolves Yes immediately. No visible catalyst is irrelevant because one statement from Pezeshkian, Khamenei, or an official source can flip it in the remaining 31 days. Consensus No at 97.5% therefore fails the low-friction reject rule for trades priced 80%+ on No; deadline has not passed. Recent behavior (May 2026 unity meeting, active cabinet role, no procedural steps) and base rates reinforce that the required trigger remains improbable but still possible via one actor.
Rules require official Iranian government info or consensus credible reporting of Pezeshkian ceasing to hold office (or announcement thereof) by 2026-06-30 ET; enrichment confirms he remains in active role with no verified removal steps or announcements as of late May 2026. No plausible rule-based flip event exists in the remaining 31 days given the strict evidence standard and absence of catalysts. This is a consensus-priced No (>80%) with verifiable support, so the oracle will resolve No absent an explicit qualifying event.
No at 97.5¢ is a clean consensus hold: $150k+ volume, Yes price drifting down 14.6pp over the month and 4.6pp over the week on real flow, and smart-money whales (5 profitable, $4.5k stake, 0.95 confidence) heavily aligned on No with no opposing high-confidence flow. Order book implied by tight Yes/No pricing and no thin-liquidity red flags; recent news shows Pezeshkian actively in office with no credible removal signals. Microstructure fully consistent with near-certain No through June 30.
+2 открытых пика · полные мнения 3 судей · премиум-канал в Telegram.
Подписаться