Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?

Web searches confirm that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) retook control of Khartoum International Airport in March 2025 and have held it since, with RSF conducting drone strikes but no recapture reported after the market opened on December 23, 2025. No recent credible reports (up to April 2026) indicate RSF advances towards the airport, and with only 2.5 months left, the probability of RSF establishing control by June 30 remains very low (<10%), validating the analyst's assessment that Yes at ~10-11% is overpriced. The implied trade on No offers a solid edge with high true probability (>90%) and acceptable risk given the stalled military situation.

Web searches confirm that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have controlled Khartoum International Airport since regaining it in March 2025, with commercial flights resuming in February 2026 and SAF further consolidating control by driving RSF out of Omdurman and other Khartoum areas in early 2026. There are no reports of recent RSF advances or captures of the airport; fighting is focused elsewhere like Darfur and Kordofan. This makes the probability of RSF capture by June 30, 2026, extremely low (&lt;5%), confirming Yes is overpriced at 10% and buy No offers a strong edge with true No probability &gt;95%, meeting the 80% threshold.

Current military data as of April 2026 confirms the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have consolidated control over Khartoum International Airport and the capital's core since March 2025, with the RSF pushed to the periphery. Given the SAF's logistical superiority and the RSF's shift in focus toward Darfur, the probability of a successful ground capture of the airport by June 30 is significantly lower than the 10% implied by the market, making 'No' a high-probability trade (>=90% true probability).