Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?

Key decision-makers (Mitsotakis, Erdogan, respective defense ministers and military commands) have aligned incentives to avoid direct engagement: both NATO members with active diplomatic channels (Feb 2026 High-Level Cooperation Council agreements on trade/migration) and established de-confliction protocols. Recent 30-90 day behavior shows zero verified clashes and routine activity only. Base rate of intentional military engagement (artillery, gunfire, ramming causing significant damage) between these actors in a 5-week window is near-zero absent a major external catalyst, which is absent here.

Rules require direct use-of-force incident (gunfire, strikes, etc.) confirmed by consensus of credible reporting; non-violent actions, intercepts, and minor ramming explicitly excluded. No such incident has occurred since market open (Dec 2025) and none is plausible in the remaining ~5 weeks given ongoing diplomacy, NATO de-confliction, and absence of escalatory triggers. Consensus-priced No (97.6%) has no rule-based flip path; P(win) >> 90%.

Market shows $1.12M volume with No at 97.6% and only minor 0.8pp weekly drift; smart-money whales are heavily concentrated on No ($8.5K+ stake from profitable accounts) with zero opposing flow of note. Order book and price action reflect genuine consensus with no thin-liquidity or stale-price signals, and no sibling-bin contradictions visible. Microstructure fully supports riding the high-certainty No hold to resolution.