Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?

Key decision-makers (Zuckerberg, Wang, Meta Superintelligence Lab) show no recent (post-March 2026 Avocado delay) movement toward public release; internal H1 2026 target exists but no demos, leaks, or announcements in 2026 searches. Releasing a qualifying frontier image/video model requires concrete public announcement + open access (high-friction steps impossible in 23 days without prior signals). Base rate of silent frontier releases is near-zero; recent behavior consistent with slippage, not acceleration.

Rules require official Meta confirmation (or consensus credible reporting) of a qualifying public release of Mango (or explicitly confirmed equivalent frontier image+video model) by 11:59 PM ET June 30; no such announcement, demo, or public access exists as of June 7 with only 23 days remaining and Avocado already delayed. Primary source standard and strict public-access criteria make Yes impossible without immediate verifiable action that has zero supporting signals. Consensus-priced No side has no plausible rule-based flip path.

Price action shows Yes drifting sharply lower (-18.5pp weekly) on the June 30 bin with no counter-flow or whale opposition (smart-money confidence only 0.47 on No side); low but real volume and tight consensus around 29¢ Yes reflect absence of any leaks/demos/announcements in the last 72h, consistent with <5% true Yes probability and >90% certainty on No. No thin-book or staleness issues block the trade.