Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?

Kistner withdrew in April 2026; Pratt won the August 11 primary unopposed after field consolidation at the May convention. The primary date has passed with no remaining mechanism for Kistner to become nominee, and official sources (RNC) will confirm Pratt. Base rate of post-withdrawal reversals in congressional primaries is near zero; no actor has incentive or capability to alter the outcome before resolution.

Kistner withdrew April 2026; Pratt won the Aug 11 Republican primary unopposed (100% of votes per Ballotpedia and MPR). Market rules resolve to the primary winner per RNC consensus; Kistner is ineligible. Oracle already finalized No with no dispute. Analyst's Buy No side is unambiguously supported by the explicit primary outcome and timing rules.

Market microstructure fully supports the Buy No thesis: price has stabilized at 98.8¢ with only minor +0.2pp drift over the past month, weekly volume of $18k reflects real consensus, and the single smart-money whale on the NO side holds $5k+ with high lifetime PnL. Kistner withdrawal and Pratt's unopposed August 11 primary win are already reflected in both price and resolver's final No outcome; no opposing flow or thin-book signals exist.