Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?

Election occurred April 12 2026; ONPE tallies show FP with 39 seats and RP with 16, locking in the outcome with no remaining actors (voters, parties, or JNE/ONPE) possessing incentive or capability to alter seat counts before certification. Recent behavior (post-election tallies and reporting) aligns exactly with No; base rate of post-election reversals on certified legislative results is near zero. Analyst's recommended No side meets the certainty bar with zero behavioral friction.

Rules require resolution to the party with most Chamber seats per ONPE/JNE official results or credible consensus; election occurred 2026-04-12 with FP at 39 seats and RP at 16 per official tallies, so RP bin resolves No with no ambiguity, tie, or unicameral exception. Results known well before Oct 31 2026 deadline and no resolver updates override. Certainty exceeds 90% bar on consensus No side with no plausible rule-based flip.

RP bin shows $23k volume with Yes priced ~10¢ (No ~90¢+), consistent with post-election results confirming FP's 39 seats vs RP's 16; no whale opposition (smart money leans Yes on RP at only 0.61 confidence with tiny stakes); price action and total event volume ($162k) reflect real consensus on FP dominance with no stale or contradictory flow.