Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 24?

Current trackers confirm 35 Republicans (Ballotpedia, Apr 15) and 37 (AP, Apr 27) House members have announced not seeking reelection in 2026, well above 24; resolution after late-Aug filing deadlines uses consensus reporting, and historical reversals are rare (<1%, e.g., one case like Mark Green in 2024), making a drop below 24 implausible (true No prob >=99%). At 95% No, this rides verifiable consensus with 5% edge, high certainty (>95% P(win)), low risk over 4 months.

Current data from AP (37 Republicans as of April 27, 2026) and Ballotpedia (35 as of April 15, 2026) confirm far more than 24 Republican House members have announced not seeking reelection, matching market criteria. Reversals are historically rare (&lt;1% per member), and dropping below 24 would require 11+ reversals, which is implausible. With market at 95% No (consensus &gt;80%) but true P(No) ≈99%, this is a high-certainty hold with actionable edge (~5% over 4 months, annualized &gt;15%).

Multiple credible sources confirm 35-40 Republican House members have announced they are not seeking reelection in 2026 (Ballotpedia: 35 as of Apr 15; AP: 37 as of Apr 27; House Press Gallery: 40 as of Apr 22), far exceeding 24. Reversals sufficient to drop below 24 are historically unprecedented and implausible with filing deadlines in late August. This supports No resolution with near-certainty (>99% probability), providing a 5% edge on the consensus-priced No shares.