Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Larry Hogan announced on January 20, 2026, that he will not run for Maryland governor or any office, confirmed by multiple credible sources like Maryland Matters, WTOP, and CBS News; he has not filed candidacy and shows no signs of reversal. As a result, he cannot win the June 23 Republican primary, making Buy No a near-certain resolution despite the current 3¢ Yes price on Polymarket. Smart money leaning Yes (0.65 confidence) involves small positions unlikely to reflect insider info given the public dropout news, and the trade rides the strong No consensus with minimal risk.

Larry Hogan announced on January 20, 2026, that he will not run for Maryland governor, confirmed by multiple credible sources including Maryland Matters, WTOP, and Baltimore Sun. The candidate filing deadline was February 24, 2026, and official Maryland elections list does not include Hogan, with other Republicans like Dan Cox and John Myrick listed. With the primary on June 23, 2026, he cannot win without being a candidate, making No near-certain (P>=99%); the 4.9¢ Yes price is a clear mispricing. Smart money lean toward Yes (0.65 confidence) is minor and likely outdated positions, as filing deadline passed and no reversal news.

Larry Hogan officially announced on January 20, 2026, that he will not run for Maryland governor, confirmed by multiple credible sources including Maryland Matters, CBS, and others; no subsequent reports indicate a reversal or late entry. Current Polymarket data shows his Yes bin at 3¢ with frontrunners like Dan Cox at 59¢, confirming he is not a candidate and cannot win the June 23 primary. The trade to buy No aligns with near-certain resolution to No per rules, riding 97%+ consensus with minimal risk over short timeframe to resolution.