MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

Ocean Infinity and Malaysian AAIB/government are the controlling actors; they have explicitly concluded the latest search phase in January 2026 with no findings and confirmed no resumption before the June 30 deadline due to weather and contract terms. Their incentives favor realistic closure over rushed, low-yield winter operations in a remote area, matching their demonstrated pattern of halting when conditions deteriorate. Base rates of prior multi-year searches and zero active vessels in the last 90 days make any breakthrough find before resolution mechanically implausible.

Rules require new underwater wreckage discovered Dec 4 2025–Jun 30 2026 and confirmed via consensus of credible reporting; Ocean Infinity search ended Jan 23 2026 with zero findings per official Mar 8 2026 statement and no resumption announced. No active operations exist in the final 41-day window, so no qualifying event can occur and default-No applies unambiguously. This is a high-certainty consensus No (98¢) with no rule-based flip possible.