Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?

Lecornu (incumbent since Sep 2025, reappointed after Oct 2025 resignation) and Macron have clear incentives for continuity through mid-2026 amid hung parliament; he has survived multiple no-confidence votes and passed the 2026 budget via 49.3 in early 2026 with no new crises or opposition momentum in the last 90 days. Removal requires either successful parliamentary vote or presidential decision—neither shows behavioral pattern or capability to execute in the ~30-day window. Base rate of sudden ouster in stable minority government post-budget is low; Yes priced at 2% matches this.

Rules require Yes only on actual cessation of office or pre-deadline announcement of resignation/removal; Lecornu remains incumbent per Wikipedia and all 2026 reporting (survived Jan/Feb no-confidence votes and passed budget), with no credible signals of imminent ouster in the final 33 days. Consensus No at 97.9% has no plausible rule-based flip path before June 30. Evidence standard (official/government consensus reporting) is unmet for Yes.

No at 97.9¢ is a clean consensus hold: Yes price has drifted lower over 1m (-3.3pp) on stable low volume ($21k total since Dec 2025), order book shows tight effective spread at these levels, and no meaningful whale opposition (the lone $1 Yes whale stake is negligible and does not contradict). Recent news confirms Lecornu remains PM with no fresh catalysts, so microstructure supports the analyst's side with P(win) well above 90%.