Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?

Sánchez has explicitly reaffirmed his intent to complete his term amid ongoing scandals; opposition (PP) has staged protests but scheduled no no-confidence vote, and Spain's parliamentary procedure cannot mechanically complete removal in the remaining ~5 weeks. No decision-maker has both the aligned incentive and demonstrated recent action (last 30-90 days) to force an exit by the deadline; base rate of rapid ouster in minority-coalition Spain is near zero. This is a high-certainty consensus hold (98¢ No) with zero plausible flip risk.

Rules require Sánchez to cease being PM (via resignation announcement, detention, effective removal, or permanent prevention) by 2026-06-30 ET; official/government sources or credible consensus reporting are authoritative. As of 2026-05-23, no such event has occurred, no no-confidence vote is scheduled, and Sánchez has publicly reaffirmed his term; the ~5-week window to deadline contains no structural path for Yes under the explicit criteria. This is a consensus-priced No (98¢) with no plausible rule-based flip, satisfying the certainty bar for approval.

Market at 98¢ No on $254k volume with tight recent price action (1d -3pp Yes, 1w flat) and no thin-book signals. Two profitable whales ($1k stake, $424k lifetime PnL) fully aligned on No at 1.00 confidence; no opposing smart-money flow. Consensus hold with ~5 weeks left shows no aggressive flow against it and meaningful liquidity, consistent with near-certain No resolution.