Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?

Web searches confirm Jared Moskowitz has explicitly stated he is not looking at a Senate run (Sep 2025) and is instead running for re-election to his U.S. House seat (FL-23) in 2026, with no announcements or filings indicating a Senate candidacy. There is a 2026 special U.S. Senate election in Florida with a Democratic primary on August 18, 2026, but Moskowitz is not among declared candidates. The 6% Yes price significantly overstates the near-zero probability of him becoming the nominee, making Buy No at 94¢ a strong mispricing with true No probability >99%, providing a solid edge over the ~4 months to resolution.

A special US Senate election is occurring in Florida in 2026 due to Marco Rubio's resignation to become Secretary of State, with Democratic primary on August 18, 2026. Jared Moskowitz has not filed candidacy with FEC, is not listed on Ballotpedia candidate lists, denied interest in September 2025, and no recent news indicates he's running. Multiple other Democrats have filed (e.g., Joshua Weil with $15M raised), making Moskowitz's path to nomination near-impossible even if he entered before April 24 deadline. No at 94% undervalues the ~100% true probability.

Current reporting and market data confirm that Jared Moskowitz is not actively running for the Senate; he has explicitly stated his intention to seek re-election to his House seat unless redistricting forces his hand. Furthermore, Alexander Vindman is currently the overwhelming favorite in this specific Polymarket contract at ~89%, making the 6% price for Moskowitz a clear 'No' opportunity with a high probability of success as the August primary approaches.