Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?

Prabowo Subianto (key decision-maker) has repeatedly conditioned any recognition on Israel first recognizing a Palestinian state—a precondition unmet and unlikely to be satisfied in the remaining ~30 days. Indonesia's domestic politics (75% public opposition) and entrenched OIC-aligned foreign policy create strong disincentives for unilateral action. No procedural steps toward formal recognition have occurred in the last 90 days, and base rates show zero prior breakthroughs despite decades of similar rhetoric; high-friction formal diplomatic recognition cannot occur via statement alone.

Rules require formal government recognition (not announcements or intentions) by 11:59pm ET June 30 2026, with primary evidence from official sources or credible consensus reporting. As of late May 2026, Indonesia maintains no diplomatic ties with Israel per multiple recent reports, and all public statements condition any recognition on Israel first recognizing Palestine (an event with no realistic timeline in the remaining ~30 days). No evidence exists of any qualifying formal act having occurred or being imminent, satisfying the strict criteria for a No resolution.