Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?

Iraqi PM Al-Sudani and parliament have explicitly and repeatedly ruled out normalization (Dec 2025 statements + 2022 anti-normalization law still in force); strong Iranian influence and domestic politics create active disincentives with zero recent movement. Trump's late-May 2026 calls targeted other states and produced no Iraqi response or bilateral steps. Formal recognition is high-friction (requires government/parliamentary action) and base rates for Iraq are zero in 75+ years; no actor has incentive or capability to deliver by June 30.

Rules require only formal governmental recognition (not announcements or intentions) between 2025-11-20 and 2026-06-30 11:59pm ET, resolved via official sources or credible consensus reporting. No such recognition has occurred or is credibly reported for Iraq; recent diplomatic pressure targets other states and Iraq's position remains unchanged with no catalysts. Buy No at 98%+ satisfies >=90% certainty bar with no plausible rule-based flip by deadline.

Consensus hold on No at 98.3¢ with $33k volume, tight implied spread, and smart-money whales ($1.2k stake) aligned on No (conf 1.0); recent price action stable/slightly firmer on No with no flow toward Yes despite Trump outreach. No whale opposition, no thin-book signals, and no contradicting sibling-bin moves or credible comments. Microstructure fully supports riding the 98% consensus to resolution.