This prediction was committed to a SHA-256 hash at call time. Anyone can verify the call was not changed after the fact.
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? | No | 2026-06-30
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Verifying…
echo -n "Russian strike on Poland by June 30? | No | 2026-06-30" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8No qualifying Russian strikes on Polish soil or embassies have occurred since September 9, 2025, as confirmed by web searches showing only intercepted drones in September 2025 that do not meet the criteria. The market's high volume ($1.8M+) indicates sophisticated pricing at ~6.5% Yes, reflecting fair tail risk assessment rather than mispricing. The analyst's 90% edge claim is overstated; realistic edge on No is minimal (~2-4%), yielding poor annualized returns (<20%) over the remaining 2.5 months, making it unactionable.
Web searches confirm no qualifying Russian strikes on Poland since the market period began on September 9, 2025; the only incidents were intercepted drones in September 2025, explicitly excluded by market rules regardless of impact. Current Polymarket prices remain around 5-6% Yes / 94-95% No, unchanged, with no recent catalysts or escalations indicating imminent action. Direct strike would trigger massive NATO response, making Yes highly improbable (true No probability >95%), providing a positive edge on Buy No with acceptable annualized return given low volume and time left.
The analyst correctly identifies that 'No' is the overwhelming favorite, but their 'Expected edge' of 90% is mathematically impossible given the current price of $0.95. The maximum possible edge for a 'No' bet at this price is 5% (100% true probability minus 95% market price).
Correction: {'trade': 'Buy No at $0.95', 'category': 'mispricing', 'reasoning': "While a drone incident was reported in January 2026 where Poland shot down Russian drones [themoscowtimes.com](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/01/14/poland-says-its-fighter-jets-shot-down-russian-drones-that-entered-its-airspace), the market rules explicitly state that 'missiles or drones which are intercepted... will not be sufficient for a Yes resolution.' Since the drones were intercepted and did not 'impact Polish ground territory' as a successful strike, the market remains on track for a 'No' resolution. The 5% 'Yes' price likely reflects a small 'black swan' tail risk rather than a 90% mispricing.", 'risk': 'A single unintercepted Russian drone or missile impacting Polish soil before June 30 would result in a total loss of capital.'}
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