Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?

📝 Post-mortem

Category: Mispricing

{'cause_category': 'fundamental_analysis_error', 'explanation': "We bet Yes expecting a mid-2026 launch based on 2025-early 2026 announcements of 'service later this year' or 'early 2026,' but Waymo remained in human-supervised testing through June 2026 with autonomous commercial rides targeted only 'by the end of 2026.' No launch occurred by the June 30 cutoff.", 'references': ['https://www.denverpost.com/2026/03/03/waymo-denver-autonomous-self-driving-taxis/', 'https://www.denver7.com/news/front-range/denver/not-pumping-the-breaks-waymo-recall-wont-affect-denver-rollout-timeline'], 'key_lesson': "Distinguish company 'later this year' hype from concrete regulatory/testing milestones before assigning even low probability to a hard deadline.", 'judge_model': 'x-ai/grok-4.3'}