Will Argentina dollarize by June 30, 2026?

Milei and his administration are the key decision-makers; their revealed preference (managed crawling band + IMF/US swap support since late 2025) shows zero movement toward the legislation, reserve buildup, or central-bank closure required for actual dollarization. Procedural barriers (Congress, reserves) make completion impossible in the ~25 days left, matching the zero historical base rate of such a shift. Recent behavior (2026 band adjustments) is the opposite of the required path, so No resolves with near-certainty.

Rules require actual commencement of a peg or USD legal tender (not announcement) by 11:59 PM ET on 2026-06-30, resolved via consensus credible reporting. Enrichment and web results confirm Milei administration continues managed peso band/IMF support with zero legislative or executive steps toward dollarization since market open; no credible reporting indicates any qualifying action has begun or can begin in the remaining ~25 days. Smart-money NO lean (0.86) aligns; no rule-based path exists for Yes.

Smart money strongly aligned with No (0.86 confidence, $122 stake vs $10 on Yes). Total volume $20k since Oct 2025 with price stable near 98.5% No and only modest 1w drift; no whale opposition or thin-book signals against the consensus. Microstructure consistent with near-certain No outcome.