Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

Web searches confirm no full-chamber votes on qualifying state secession measures (state leaving US) since market opened Oct 2025; recent bills like NM HJR10 are about counties seceding to other states, explicitly non-qualifying per rules (not state from US, likely no full vote). Polymarket prices remain Yes 5¢/No 95¢ with low volume, no pending qualifying bills or momentum found, true Yes prob near 0% (>80% for No), 4% edge over 2.5 months yields ~20% annualized, actionable mispricing.

The analyst's recommendation to buy 'No' is correct. The market rules require a full chamber vote on a measure whose main purpose is secession or explicit support for it. Web search results from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/any-us-state-legislature-votes-on-secession-by-june-30-2026) and [polypredict.ai](https://polypredict.ai/polymarket/any-us-state-legislature-votes-on-secession-by-june-30-2026-odds-prediction) confirm no such bills have been introduced or advanced in recent sessions, and the legal precedent (Texas v. White) makes this an extreme political tail-risk event. The 95% 'No' price is still undervalued relative to the near-certain true probability, which is likely >99.9%.

The strict resolution criteria (full chamber vote, main purpose must be secession, excludes exploratory measures) make a 'Yes' outcome virtually impossible, validating the 'No' recommendation. With 72 days until resolution, the 4% absolute edge annualizes to ~20%, meeting the minimum return threshold, and the true probability of 'No' comfortably exceeds the 80% safety floor. No recent legislative activity suggests a qualifying vote is imminent.