Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Trump and Putin lack aligned incentives or recent actions (last 90 days: only phone calls/envoys, stalled Ukraine talks, shifted priorities to Iran/NATO) to arrange a qualifying in-person meeting in the remaining 26 days; no bilateral summit is scheduled and logistics for such an event have high friction. Base rates for ad-hoc US-Russia leader summits are near zero without months of prep. Smart-money whales correctly lean Yes; the 96%+ consensus holds.

Rules define a qualifying meeting as in-person interaction (handshake, conversation, etc.) between Trump and Putin; phone calls and proximity do not count. No bilateral summit or qualifying encounter is scheduled or credibly reported for the final 26 days before the June 30 deadline, per White House statements and recent coverage. Primary source (consensus of credible reporting) will confirm absence of any such event, satisfying the 'No meeting by June 30' bin with no plausible rule-based flip possible.

Consensus hold at 96.4% Yes with $906k volume, +1.7pp 1w/+3.9pp 1m drift on Yes, tight pricing, and smart-money whales (top holder ImJustKen) heavily aligned on Yes side (0.97 confidence, $6k+ stake). No recent price action or whale flow against the thesis, no sibling-bin contradictions visible, and no credible comments flagging rule issues or breaking news that would force a meeting in the final 26 days.