Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?

Martial law in Ukraine, extended through at least August 2026, constitutionally prohibits national elections, as confirmed by official statements and credible reporting; no elections have been held or scheduled between February 12, 2025, and now (April 28, 2026), with Zelenskyy stating elections only after ceasefire. The market rules require actual elections by June 30, 2026, per official sources, making 'No' near-certain (P>=99%) and the 2% edge on No at 98% a safe consensus ride with low risk of flip.

No national parliamentary or presidential elections have been held in Ukraine since the market opened on February 12, 2025, and official government statements confirm elections are prohibited under ongoing martial law, which Zelenskyy has just proposed extending from May 4 to August 2, 2026. Credible reporting shows no plans for elections by June 30, 2026, and constitutional/legal barriers make it impossible. With Yes at 2% despite consensus evidence supporting No resolution, buying No offers a high-certainty 2% edge on a near-resolved market.

Martial law in Ukraine, extended multiple times and proposed for further extension to August 2026 as of April 27, 2026, constitutionally prohibits national elections, with official statements confirming no elections can or will be held during it. No national parliamentary or presidential elections have occurred since the market opened on February 12, 2025, and credible reporting shows no plans or announcements for any before June 30, 2026. The market's No price at 98% reflects near-certainty under formal rules (official government sources primary), making the 2% edge on No a safe consensus ride with P(No) ≈ 99%.