Iran leadership change by July 31?

Key decision-makers (IRGC, Assembly of Experts, Pezeshkian, clerical elites) have strong incentives for post-succession stability after the March 2026 transition; no recent (last 90 days) actions or statements indicate removal or resignation of Mojtaba Khamenei. Base rates for rapid leadership change in the first 4+ months of a new Supreme Leader are near zero, and the 13-day window precludes any plausible high-friction process (coup, formal ouster, or credible announcement). Smart-money whales on No align with this behavioral pattern; low-friction triggers are absent.

Rules require Yes only on removal/detention/official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei losing de facto power by July 31 ET, resolved via consensus credible reporting. No such events or announcements exist as of July 18; recent IRGC statements and images confirm he remains in position despite public absence speculation. With 13 days left and no catalysts, No is the unambiguous outcome under literal interpretation.

No at 95.5¢ with $314k volume, tight implied spread, and +1.9pp weekly drift shows real consensus; 7 profitable whales hold $85k on No (0.97 confidence) vs tiny Yes whale exposure. Recent July 11-14 reporting confirms Mojtaba active and issuing statements with no removal signals, consistent with price action and no opposing flow. 13 days left leaves negligible room for surprise change.