Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?

Péter Magyar and Tisza's supermajority have clear incentive and demonstrated capability (passed 17th Amendment July 13 with 139-6) to purge Orbán-era Sulyok, with 5-day signing window ending ~July 18 followed by immediate impeachment/suspension of powers (Speaker then promulgates) if refused or referred to CC. Sulyok's resistance (prior Venice/CC referrals, refusal to resign) is expected but cannot mechanically block cessation/announcement of removal before July 31 given majority control of procedure; base rates for supermajority purges and recent aggressive pattern support Yes resolving with high certainty.

Parliament passed the 17th amendment on 13 July 2026 explicitly terminating Sulyok's mandate upon entry into force; he has ~5 days to sign or refer (procedural review only). Refusal triggers immediate impeachment/suspension of powers (Speaker assumes duties and promulgates), or temporary incapacity declaration—all completable well before 31 July with the supermajority. Market rules resolve Yes on any cessation of office (including suspension) or announcement of removal, with official/govt sources or credible consensus as evidence; no plausible rule-based path to No exists by deadline.

Smart money heavily aligned with Yes ($11.8k stake from profitable whales vs $332 on No, conf 0.95); price action shows healthy post-amendment drift (+5pp 1d to 82¢) on solid $173k+ volume with no thin-book or opposing-flow red flags. Microstructure supports the mispricing thesis as the irreversible July 13 constitutional process (sign-or-impeach by ~July 18) has not yet fully arbed the remaining ~15-18¢ gap.